Egg seasonal correction will continue

After the Mid-Autumn Festival, the spot price of eggs dropped seasonally. At present, the demand for eggs is seasonally off-season, the sales of eggs are slow, traders have long-term low profits, and the phenomenon of stoppage in some regions has occurred. The price of eggs will continue to decline seasonally.

The number of laying stocks is slowly recovering and it is expected to accelerate in the future. Although September-October was the traditional peak season, and the recent continued profitability of aquaculture was a good complement, according to market research, it was found that the current disease status of laying hens was still outstanding, farmers worried about the epidemic, suspended the replenishment plan, and Farmers reported that in recent years, with the improvement of breeding conditions, the difficulty of brooding in winter has decreased, and the number of households that choose to replenish the bar has increased in winter. It is expected that the peak period of the bar will be ushered in winter.

Even though the current farmers are very cautious about the restocking, according to the latest data from Zhihua data, the number of layered chickens in September was 1.132 billion, which is still at a low level, but rose by 15 million compared with August. Judging from the number of bred chicks, the 60,000 supplementary bars in September were 3.17 million more than in August. The stock of laying hens and the number of replenishment bars are still showing a slowly increasing trend. Under the stimulation of high breeding profits, the rapid development of large-scale farming will increase the number of laying hens in the future.

The chicken age structure is somewhat younger, and the egg supply gradually increases. The increase in the proportion of chickens in production in September has increased, confirming that the number of laying hens in the main egg production has increased; and the laying hens that are about to be phased out for more than 450 days are affected by higher egg prices from April to July. There has been a phenomenon of delayed elimination. Among them, the delay of the old chicken from 450 days to 480 days is the most serious. It began to be eliminated in August and the elimination efforts in September continued to increase. However, due to the overall shortage of laying chickens, the number of available chickens is limited. Even though the old chickens have a large elimination rate, the supply of chickens is still at a low level, leading to the high price of running chickens.

It is expected that the young age structure will tend to be younger. With the gradual production of reserve chickens, laying hens will gradually increase in the peak period, coupled with the best laying hens' performance in autumn and winter, will increase egg production by about 10% in summer. Therefore, the supply of eggs will gradually increase.

Seasonal demand is coming off-season, and bearish egg prices. Recently, a large number of fruit, autumn vegetables, and aquatic products have been concentrated during the period of listing, and the related prices of raw pork chickens have continued to fall, the consumption of alternative eggs has increased, and there is no holiday to boost demand for eggs. Currently, it is in the off-season seasonal consumption of eggs, and since October Egg prices did not fall and rose, mainly due to farmers expected to fall after the Mid-Autumn egg prices, have to increase the elimination of old chickens, resulting in the maintenance of a low level in the laying hens in September, tight supply of eggs in the main producing areas, traders compete for The market competition is extremely fierce, and regular price increases are received. As a result, the prices of egg production areas have continued to rise recently.

Taking the price of eggs in Liaoning's Heishan Mountain area as an example, it stayed at 4.95-5 yuan/kg. However, due to weak demand, Guangzhou egg prices in the selling area of ​​eggs were only around 5.25 yuan/kg. Traders had zero profits and even lost profits. The spread of eggs between the district and the main sales area is narrowing, and even upside down. The current unhealthy pattern is difficult to continue for a long time. Once the traders are forced to scale down, the egg prices in the production areas will accelerate decline, and the decline in sales areas will be limited, so that the difference between the production and sales areas will return. Reasonable level.

Without the support of intermediate links for supply, egg prices will gradually return to the basic pattern of supply and demand. The current supply of eggs will increase slightly before the Mid-Autumn Festival, and will increase in the future, and the demand for eggs will be significantly lower than before the Mid-Autumn Festival. Therefore, the spot price of eggs will continue to decline seasonally.