In the past few years, both large pharmaceutical companies and small companies have introduced transformative products in multiple therapeutic areas. The enthusiasm of investors and the growing demand for medical health brought about by global population growth have made the new year's pharmaceutical industry The development has new expectations.
In terms of regulation, with the appointment of the new FDA director Scott Gottlieb, it is widely believed that the FDA will change the review and approval, such as speeding up drug approval and relaxing the regulation of generic drugs. In 2017, the FDA approved a total of 43 new drugs, which are expected to reach US$32 billion in the US market in the next five years. And in markets that are increasingly sensitive to costs, how these new products or therapies will be commercialized is also of concern. On the other hand, with the Brexit, it also brings uncertainty to the global pharmaceutical market, such as the European Medicines Agency has moved from London to Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
In terms of investment, advanced product pipelines will continue to influence investors' views on the pharmaceutical industry. The most concerned is the new generation of tumor immunopharmaceuticals. The value of these new technologies will be seen in 2018, not only for investors, but also for investors. It is for potential acquirers, and these people are only in a wait-and-see attitude in 2017.
Will 2018 usher in a super merger?
Looking at the global M&A case this year, only the amount of the $30 billion acquisition of Aike Tailong at the beginning of the year was large. In addition, from the quarterly transaction figures and amount, compared with 2016, it is also mostly down. It is widely believed that the reduction in the number of transactions is due to the uncertainty of tax reforms. As Trump signs the tax reform bill, it not only reduces the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21%, but also plans to switch to a territorial tax system. "Abandon the unique global taxation method in the United States, regardless of where the company's profits are earned." But it also includes provisions to reduce the post tax rate on the global taxation of US multinationals' foreign profits to protect the US tax base.
Some insiders believe that tax reform will only make sense for large pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer who are looking to be super-mergers. For a $15 billion merger or less, the tax reform is "almost meaningless." .
In addition to tax reforms, another major reason for supporting mergers and acquisitions in 2018 came from seeking revenue growth. For pharmaceutical companies that are increasingly dependent on traditional medicines in large therapeutic areas, such as diabetes and cardiovascular drugs, this demand will become stronger and stronger.
2018 Who is up and down?
In the biopharmaceutical sector, it is easy to see "high expectations" in many ways.
In 2014, BMS Opdivo and Merck East Keytruda were approved for marketing. The cumulative sales for the two years reached $8 billion. It is expected that the sales of five PD-1 inhibitors on the market in 2017 will reach $10 billion.
It is expected that the global sales champion in 2018 will still belong to Xiu Lele, with global sales reaching US$20.2 billion, followed by Xinji’s lenalidomide and Amgen’s Enli. It is worth noting that five of the top 10 drugs are expected to decline global sales in 2018. The largest growth is expected to be Keytruda, with global sales of $6.1 billion.
On the company side, Pfizer, Novartis and Roche are expected to become the top three global sales companies in 2018, with sales of prescription and over-the-counter drugs reaching $47.6 billion, $42.8 billion and $42.4 billion, respectively. Among the top ten, only Gilead is expected to decline global sales in 2018, while Johnson & Johnson expects global sales to grow by $3.17 billion, making it the most growing company.
Despite the expected reduction in sales in 2018, data from EvaluatePharma also shows that the top 10 most profitable varieties in Gilead in 2022 are anti-AIDS and anti-HC drugs. Among the top 10 most profitable varieties, there are 5 anti-AIDS drugs, 3 anti-hepatitis drugs, 1 anti-hepatitis B drug and 1 anti-inflammatory drug (Filgotinib). Of the top ten varieties, three are currently in phase III clinical trials.
Among them, the triple compound anti-aily drug Bictegravir/F/TAF containing TAF consists of Bictegravir (GS9883), emtricitabine (F) and tenofovir alafenamide (TAF), and is currently undergoing phase III clinical trial. . Global sales of the drug are expected to reach $5.05 billion in 2022. Despite the expected reduction in sales in 2018, data from EvaluatePharma also shows that the top 10 most profitable varieties in Gilead in 2022 are anti-AIDS and anti-HC drugs. Among the top 10 most profitable varieties, there are 5 anti-AIDS drugs, 3 anti-hepatitis drugs, 1 anti-hepatitis B drug and 1 anti-inflammatory drug (Filgotinib). Of the top ten varieties, three are currently in phase III clinical trials.
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